Fox News Halftime Report -- Taking Biden from one basement to another
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Aug. 20, 2020
By Chris Stirewalt
On the roster: Taking Biden from one basement to another - Trump to try to bracket Biden - Top Trump strategist charged with massive fraud - Kennedy goes on the attack in bid to regain momentum - *Ahem* It was a little off
TAKING BIDEN FROM ONE BASEMENT TO ANOTHER
After two nights of impressive digital stagecraft and right up through the beautifully composed set for former-President Barack Obama's remarks, Democrats on Wednesday flopped when it counted the most.
Vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris was placed in an airless tomb of a room that looked like there should have been a catafalque where the podium was.
If that's the same set that presidential nominee Joe Biden has to use tonight, they are putting their man at a severe disadvantage. After finally figuring out a way to portray Biden in a warm, homey glow during the campaign, why would Democrats now want to place him in this gloomy crypt?
As they showed with Obama and others, the right way to deal with a virtual convention is to ignore the convention part. Rather than trying to create an online version of a physical event, it's far better to make something new and different.
Watching Harris, Biden and their spouses pretending to be interacting with a live audience was excruciating. Similarly, Harris' efforts to deliver an old-fashioned convention speech fell painfully flat at times. Without a crowd to carry the speaker, the traditional way won't work.
But there are compensating advantages of the digital format. Television may be a cool medium, but it is the best at creating the feeling of intimacy. Obama, his wife and Jill Biden all used that to create a strong bond with viewers at home while Harris was forced to play pretend.
The set piece political speech is one of the few oratorical havens for Biden, who is in evident agony as he tries to get through extemporaneous remarks. But if the goal for Democrats was to give Biden a chance to lean on a teleprompter in a grander setting than his basement, they have missed the mark.
Rather than getting Biden out of his basement they will be putting him in a larger, spookier one.
THE RULEBOOK: NEW YORKERS, AMIRITE?
"The North is generally the region of strength, and many local circumstances render it probable that the most Northern of the proposed confederacies would, at a period not very distant, be unquestionably more formidable than any of the others." – John Jay, Federalist No. 5
TIME OUT: LOUISVILLE BY WAY OF WARSAW
Garden&Gun: "In Louisville, locals are plenty proud of the city's modjeska (pronounced moh-JESS-kuh) confections, pillowy marshmallows encased in rich caramel. But long before Muth's Candies on Market Street sold them individually and by sets of seven—or started dipping them in chocolate—a Polish actress visiting Kentucky kickstarted their legacy. In 1883, the famed Polish actress Helena Modjeska visited Louisville to perform in the American debut of the play A Doll's House at Macauley's Theatre. … Anton Busath, a French confectioner who ran a downtown candy shop, attended the play and was so blown away by Modjeska's performance in the lead role that he wrote to the actress to ask if he could name his newly created confection—a marshmallow dipped in caramel—after her. The star graciously sent Busath her approval and her autographed portrait, which hung in his store for decades."
Flag on the play? - Email us at HALFTIMEREPORT@FOXNEWS.COM with your tips, comments or questions.
SCOREBOARD
NATIONAL HEAD-TO-HEAD AVERAGE
Trump: 43 percent
Biden: 51.2 percent
Size of lead: Biden by 8.2 points
Change from one week ago: Biden ↓ 0.2 points, Trump ↑ 2.4 points
[Average includes: CNN: Trump 46% - Biden 50%; ABC News/WaPo: Trump 44% - Biden 54%; NBC News/WSJ: Trump 41% - Biden 50%; Fox News: Trump 42% - Biden 49%; NPR/PBS News/Marist: Trump 42% - Biden 53%.]
BATTLEGROUND POWER RANKINGS
(270 electoral votes needed to win)
Toss-up: (109 electoral votes): Wisconsin (10), Ohio (18), Florida (29), Arizona (11), Pennsylvania (20), North Carolina (15), Iowa (6)
Lean R/Likely R: (180 electoral votes)
Lean D/Likely D: (249 electoral votes)
TRUMP JOB PERFORMANCE
Average approval: 43 percent
Average disapproval: 54.6 percent
Net Score: -11.6 points
Change from one week ago: ↑ 3.8 points
[Average includes: CNN: 43% approve - 54% disapprove; ABC News/WaPo: 42% approve - 57% disapprove; NBC News/WSJ: 44% approve - 53% disapprove; Fox News: 44% approve - 54% disapprove; Gallup: 42% approve - 55% disapprove.]
GOT A WILD PITCH? READY TO THROW A FASTBALL?
We've brought "From the Bleachers" to video on demand thanks to Fox Nation. Each Wednesday and Friday, Producer Brianna McClelland will put Politics Editor Chris Stirewalt to the test with your questions on everything about politics, government and American history – plus whatever else is on your mind. Sign up for the Fox Nation streaming service here and send your best questions to HALFTIMEREPORT@FOXNEWS.COM.
TRUMP TO TRY TO BRACKET BIDEN
Fox News: "President Trump is expected to scorch former Vice President Joe Biden's record during a speech in Pennsylvania on Thursday while touting his own administration's work on border security, taxes, and the economy. The president is slated to deliver his speech Thursday afternoon just outside Biden's birthplace in Scranton, Pa., and just hours before the former vice president is slated to formally accept the Democratic nomination for president. A source familiar with the president's speech told Fox News Thursday that Trump will say Biden left Scranton 70 years ago and spent the last half century 'ripping off' residents and workers of Pennsylvania. The source told Fox News that Trump will blast Biden's policies, including his work on trade deals and what Trump calls his 'soft' stance on China. … The source also told Fox News that Trump will hit Biden on immigration and the border, and his stance on sanctuary cities, while touting the Trump administration's record on taxes, the economy, and border security."
Bloomberg, Booker, Yang, Duckworth among Biden's warm-ups - Fox News: "A smattering of his lower-profile former primary rivals and others will open for Biden, along with a couple of state secretaries of state to address the hot topic of mail-in voting. But make no mistake -- what really matters Thursday is Biden. Thursday's speaker lineup: Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J.; former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, California Secretary of State Alex Padilla and Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson; Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms; Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis.; Sen. Tammy Duckworth, D-Ill.; Sen. Chris Coons, D-Del.; former presidential candidate Andrew Yang; former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg… Each night of the DNC features a theme, and Thursday's is 'America's Promise.' According to the DNC, that theme will highlight Biden's long career as a public servant, starting as a public defender and ascending all the way to vice president over a five-decade career."
Harris emphasizes history making, zings Trump: 'no vaccine for racism' - Fox News: "Sen. Kamala Harris accepted the Democratic Party's vice-presidential nomination on Day Three of the virtual convention… 'That I am here tonight is a testament to the dedication of generations before me,' Harris, D-Calif., said. … Harris, 55, made history as the first Black woman and Indian American woman on a major party presidential ticket. She paid special tribute to her Indian immigrant mother for raising her and her sister to be 'proud strong Black women.' And she called out persistent racial inequalities, which the coronavirus pandemic further exposed. … Harris said the racial inequities are evident in education, technology, health care, housing, job security, excessive force by police and the criminal justice system. 'And let's be clear—there is no vaccine for racism,' Harris said. … In her acceptance speech, the former California Attorney General made the case that her landmark nomination reflects the kind of groundbreaking and inclusive vision of America a Biden-Harris Administration would represent."
Somber Obama uses Constitution to carve up Trump - NYT: "Former President Barack Obama, hair grayed and manner grave, on Wednesday painted a dire picture of the United States under President Trump, portraying his successor as a man unfit, uncaring and unserious who threatens not only the nation's welfare but also its core democratic institutions. 'This administration has shown it will tear our democracy down if that's what it takes to win,' Mr. Obama said in one of the most emotional speeches he has ever delivered. The former president, who has cast aside his initial reluctance to engage with Mr. Trump, worked on the draft of his speech up until nearly the moment he delivered it, in an effort to create a concise indictment of a president who has ridiculed him personally, leveled racist attacks, and sought to erase any trace of Mr. Obama's policy legacy since taking power. If Mr. Trump has subjected Mr. Obama to a thousand paper cuts on Twitter, this was one grand rhetorical saber stroke, possibly the most comprehensive denunciation of one president by another in the country's history."
Dems use Trump's attacks on mail-in voting to spur turnout - NPR: "Speaker after speaker Wednesday reminded Americans — and then reminded them again — that they need to vote in the 2020 election. Democrats are growing increasingly concerned about the president's rhetoric raising questions about the legitimacy of the November vote. Party leaders worry that people will be reluctant to vote in person because of the coronavirus pandemic. … Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren closed her remarks, as did others, by offering information on how to vote: 'Whether you're planning to vote wearing a mask or vote by mail, please, take out your phone right now and text 'VOTE' to 3-0-3-3-0.' And Hillary Clinton, who lost in 2016 to Trump, reminded viewers that many voters sat out that election because they didn't think their vote mattered. She warned, 'This can't be another woulda-coulda-shoulda election.'"
TOP TRUMP STRATEGIST CHARGED WITH MASSIVE FRAUD
AP: "President Donald Trump's former chief strategist Steve Bannon was arrested Thursday on charges that he and three others ripped off donors to an online fundraising scheme to build a southern border wall, making him the latest in a long list of Trump associates to be indicted or charged. The 'We Build The Wall' fundraiser was headed by men who pushed their close ties to President Trump, giving their effort a legitimacy that helped them raise more than $25 million. … But according to the criminal charges unsealed Thursday, very little of the wall was actually constructed. Instead, the money lined the pockets of some of those involved. Bannon, who served in Trump's 2016 campaign and White House, received over $1 million himself, using some to secretly pay co-defendant, Brian Kolfage, the founder of the project, and to cover hundreds of thousands of dollars of Bannon's personal expenses."
Federal judge tosses Trump bid to withhold tax returns - Fox News: "A federal judge on Thursday dismissed President Trump's latest bid to block a subpoena for his taxes from Manhattan District Attorney Cy Vance Jr. U.S. District Judge Victor Marrero rejected Trump's arguments that the subpoena, from a state grand jury looking into payments made to adult actress Stormy Daniels before Trump 2016 presidential win, was issued in bad faith and is too broad. 'We will appeal,' the president's personal lawyer Jay Sekulow said. Vance is seeking eight years of Trump's personal and business tax returns as well as other financial documents as part of an investigation into the president's business practices. The ruling comes about a month after the U.S. Supreme Court rejected the president's earlier claims of absolute immunity from state criminal subpoenas. The high court did say Trump was entitled to object to the subpoena on alternative grounds."
Trump warms up to QAnon - NYT: "QAnon was once a fringe phenomenon — the kind most people could safely ignore. But in recent months, it's gone mainstream. Twitter, Facebook and other social networks have been flooded with QAnon-related false information about Covid-19, the Black Lives Matter protests and the 2020 election. … QAnon is the umbrella term for a sprawling set of internet conspiracy theories that allege, falsely, that the world is run by a cabal of Satan-worshiping pedophiles who are plotting against Mr. Trump while operating a global child sex-trafficking ring. … According to QAnon lore, Mr. Trump was recruited by top military generals to run for president in 2016 in order to break up this criminal conspiracy, end its control of politics and the media, and bring its members to justice. … Since it began, QAnon has incorporated elements of many other conspiracy theory communities, including claims about the assassination of John F. Kennedy, the existence of U.F.O.s, and the 9/11 'truther' movement."
KENNEDY GOES ON THE ATTACK IN BID TO REGAIN MOMENTUM
Boston Globe: "Since the moment he announced his challenge to Senator Edward J. Markey in the Democratic primary, Representative Joseph P. Kennedy III has faced questions about why he is running and… In recent weeks, Kennedy has sharpened his efforts to define Markey as out-of-touch with the struggles of many of his constituents. … The question now is whether Kennedy's waited too long to start drawing this unflattering portrait of Markey. … Kennedy started the race with a double-digit lead in the polls, buoyed by his famous last name. … But Markey has in recent months eliminated Kennedy's polling lead, boosted by national progressive groups and left-wing activists who solidified behind him and have helped build his image as an unexpectedly hip and indispensable progressive champion. With Kennedy's polling lead long gone and Markey appearing to have momentum, the Kennedy campaign seems to feel compelled to draw a sharper contrast between their guy and the incumbent."
RNC online fundraising surges - The Hill: "The Republican National Committee (RNC) pulled in more than $55 million last month, according to figures shared first with The Hill, marking the party's best July fundraising haul on record. The $55.3 million haul brings the committee's total cash on hand to $109.9 million, the most in party history. July also marked the RNC's best-ever month of online fundraising, and a two-fold increase in the party's online fundraising from 2016. The RNC and the Trump campaign, along with its affiliated groups, brought in a combined $169.3 million in July, besting the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and former Vice President Joe Biden's campaign by nearly $30 million."
PLAY-BY-PLAY
USC revives survey panel to track voter shifts until Election Day - University of Southern California
A brief history of women's voting trends since suffrage and the birth of the gender gap - FiveThirtyEight
Slade Gorton, longtime Washington senator, dead at 92 - AP
The Judge's Ruling: Extent of government spying revealed in below-the-radar events you probably missed - Fox News
AUDIBLE: 'RIGHT NOW'
"I'm certainly not looking at, or thinking of running for any office right now." – Pete Buttigieg when asked by the Indianapolis Monthly about running for Senate in 2022 or governor in 2024.
FROM THE BLEACHERS
"In today's lead story, Is Obama Ready to Promote Sheriff Joe?, you refer to Harris's 'mainstream appeal.' That appeal is a figment of your imagination, as she did not even stick around for Iowa and New Hampshire, having abandoned her campaign on December 3, 2019. You go on to state that Biden '…swiftly and soundly defeated the far-left faction…' That's backwards. During the first 3 weeks of the campaign, it was Biden himself who was swiftly and soundly defeated – in the Iowa caucuses (14%), New Hampshire primary (8%), and Nevada caucuses (19%)." – Stuart Barr, Durham, N.C.
[Ed. note: Mr. Barr, I gather that you dislike Harris and probably Biden, too. That's cool. But don't kid yourself into thinking that just because you don't like someone, that they are unpopular. Certainly primary performance is a poor way to judge a politician's overall popularity. Look at Biden who had an abysmal run for president in 2008, but left office as vice president as one of the most popular figures in American public life. Conversely, Donald Trump steamrolled the competition in the 2016 Republican primaries but has never had great mainstream appeal. And as for your beef about Biden's loss in the first three nominating contests, wouldn't that make it all the more surprising that he would go on to quickly flatten Bernie Sanders? Sanders was forced out of the race just six weeks later -- more than two months earlier than in 2016. I understand if you want them to lose, but you're not doing yourself any favors in underestimating your opponent's actual strengths.]
"The Supreme Court will apparently decide whether the ACA is constitutional shortly after the election. How do you think they will rule and will the impending ruling have an effect on the election? I like reading the Halftime Report." – Bill Newton, Berkeley, Calif.
[Ed. note: Well, we sure like making it for you, Mr. Newton! I think issues like the constitutionality of ObamaCare are likely to only penetrate the thinking of a handful of highly engaged voters who follow the news very closely. And the thing about those voters is that they're usually not persuadable. If you care enough about health insurance policy or constitutional law to be keyed in on the decision, it seems very likely that you would have opinions of your own about the case and, almost certainly, about your partisan preferences in the election. What many voters won't be considering is how the Supreme Court may end up opening up that can of worms just as a new Congress and news presidential term begin. The winners in November may have the opportunity/agony of fashioning a whole new health insurance regime.]
"...I have a question and a couple of rants and raves from a professor. I hear and read many articles describing the current state of the race especially during the conventions. Everyone talks about the 'probability' that Trump or Biden will win in November. Tangent 1: Most folks understand probability in a frequentist sense not Bayesian. That means, probabilities are really only useful when we have events that are repeatable. What does it even mean to assign a numerical probability to an event that by definition will only happen once? If I say that WVU has a 70% chance of beating Oklahoma this year, that's a proposition that cannot be falsified simply because they will only play once; the outcome will only be a 1 or 0; because they play only once, it literally can't be 70%. … The concept of probability is grossly abused … Tangent 2: Correlation and covariance assume a linear relationship between variables! That is the hardest lesson to learn in finance, economics and political science. … The debate about the accuracy of polls from 2016 (as well as in this election cycle) seem misguided to me. It seems to me the right question to ask is what is the correct relationship between changes in polls leading up to elections and election outcomes. … But to be honest, I'm not a pollster, so this is above my pay grade." –Eric Olson, Tulsa, Okla.
[Ed. note: Professor, you may have just invented time travel because I am very sure that I was just transported back to Professor Berman's Finite Mathematical Models class circa 1996. After the cold sweats and tremors subsided, I was able to sort through your good observations and useful question. You are quite right about the difference between the probabilities you use in your work as an economist and the probabilities we talk about in election outcomes, but there are some similarities. There are those, like the smarties over at FiveThirtyEight and elsewhere who have tried to control for the variables you describe between elections or sporting events. One presidential election or one game between the Mountaineers and the Sooners shares much in common with the ones before it. They're offering predictions based in relation to past outcomes adjusted for the current data available. It's fun, but like much applied economic theory, creates a false impression of scientific certainty. That perception leads to other cognitive errors. I figure Trump has about a 1-in-4 chance of getting re-elected, a little better than in 2016, actually. Mine is an informed guess of the sort that bookies used to make based on my 20-some years covering politics, the polls and what my sources behind the lines are telling me. What drives my assumption in large part has been how consistent polls have been. Trump hasn't been over 45 percent nationally in FiveThirtyEight's polling average since March 8 and Biden hasn't been below 29 percent since May. Unlike 2016 which saw much bigger swings and even an August tie, the shape of this contest has been remarkably stable. So when I say I think Trump has about a 25 percent chance of winning, I'm saying that I think there's enough time left and enough potential variability left in events to leave the door ajar for a Trump comeback or a Biden collapse. It's a non-scientific shorthand for me to talk about the odds, not an attempt at pseudoscience. The problem with the appearance of certainty is that for laypeople, it sounds like a prediction rather than a percentage. It's hard to make people understand the difference between low-probability outcomes and impossibilities. That's one of the advantages about election futures markets that force participants to deal with real probabilities. I think you're quite right about polls, by the way. What I care about isn't as much whether they are "accurate" or even predictive but their capacity to track changes along the way. I'm paying far more attention to movement than I am the actual top-line numbers themselves. And… Let's go Mountaineers!]
Share your color commentary: Email us at HALFTIMEREPORT@FOXNEWS.COM and please make sure to include your name and hometown.
*AHEM* IT WAS A LITTLE OFF
Springfield [Mo.] News-Leader: "A Missouri doctor has lost his license after amputating a patient's gangrenous toe on the back porch of his rural office. The Missouri State Board of Registration for the Healing Arts ordered in June that John Ure's physician and surgeon license be revoked. Ure had been practicing in Deepwater, Missouri, located in Henry County about halfway between Springfield and Kansas City. Documents filed by the Board of Registration for the Healing Arts say Ure's office doubled as a machine shed and lacked running water, restrooms or an examination table. The board's order says that in May 2016, Ure amputated a patient's gangrenous toe on the back porch of Ure's office, which is a 'non-sterile environment.' Ure reportedly explained the procedure was 'not done optimally' and he had a 'lapse in judgment.'"
AND NOW, A WORD FROM CHARLES…
"I don't think the West needs to apologize — or pay — for having invented the steam engine." – Charles Krauthammer (1950-2018) writing in the Washington Post on June 8, 2017.
Chris Stirewalt is the politics editor for Fox News. Brianna McClelland contributed to this report. Want FOX News Halftime Report in your inbox every day? Sign up here.
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