Fox News Halftime Report -- The Ballad of Watermelon Joe and other Kavanuggets
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Oct. 5, 2018
By Chris Stirewalt
THE BALLAD OF WATERMELON JOE AND OTHER KAVANUGGETS
- Well, doesn't Joe Manchin look slicker than a greased watermelon – and twice as hard to catch? While his fellow red state Senate Democrats have found their re-election hopes badly hampered by the bilious conflict around the Supreme Court fight, Manchin has managed to come out a clear winner. He took a chance in backing a one-week delay in the vote on Judge Brett Kavanaugh. That could have backfired, but the report satisfied Republicans and now allows Manchin to not just support the nomination but to have been part of saving it. As they would say in Farmington, mighty cagey.
- Speaking of investigations, has there ever been a purer distillation of Washington hypocrisy than the sudden rediscovery of the great virtue of the FBI in the Trump White House and corresponding lamentations about the agency from Democrats who until a week ago were treating G-Men like the final custodians of our republic.
- The growing effort to bring civil (or really uncivil) disobedience to bear on the work of the Senate is maybe fitting. Crowds screaming at lawmakers and berating them as they go about their way is strangely suitable for a body that is losing the thread of its creation and purpose. If the Senate is doomed to be a stage set for a dreadful reality show, the extras at least add some urgency and drama to the scene.
- Speaking of good television, we wonder if Lindsey Graham's new "Lindsey Unleashed" series will continue after the nomination battle. He's facing some stiff competition from John Kennedy's "Mouth of the South," but we bet the ratings would be boffo.
- Watching politics and government certainly tends to make one more cynical, but even we have been surprised by the degree of jadedness being expressed around this court fight. Why did Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, D-N.D., vote against Kavanaugh? It doesn't have to be about currying favor with Democrats for her next job. Did you ever consider that that's actually the way she feels? With vanishingly little chance of winning re-election, the lady is free to do as she likes. The same goes for Republican Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. Her Hamlet act drew scoffs, but what's so hard to believe about the fact that this was a difficult choice for her?
- Questioning peoples' motives used to be an unpleasant part of politics. Now it seems to be the very nature of politics itself. The idea that a person is sincere is considered almost risible in Washington today. Elizabeth Bruenig writes convincingly on the subject today. She says, "Our entire democracy functions under a noxious haze of justified mistrust." Ain't it a shame?
- How about some other worthwhile reading on the subject of our frayed fabric? We recommend Hoppy Kercheval on "America's ugly divorce," Amy Walter on "The war that never ends" and Matthew Continetti's "After Kavanaugh."
- Along those lines, what we are witnessing now is just the first of the Supreme Court nominations of the pure majoritarian era. The two-step, bipartisan nuclear demolition of the 60-vote threshold for presidential nominations has created new, damaging incentives for both sides. If this is what the future looks like, we're in big trouble.
- What kind of justice do you think Kavanaugh will be, assuming all goes according to Hoyle? We can't be sure, but based on the tone of both his apology in the WSJ for embittered, partisan answers during last week's hearing as well as the closing argument on his behalf from Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, we wouldn't be surprised to see him seek to earn back some of the esteem of his peers, friends and neighbors by adopting some of the swing-voting ways of his former boss and mentor, Anthony Kennedy.
- As for political predictions for the consequences of this now all-but-certain confirmation will be, we would encourage everyone to take a breath. This process has unleashed some very ill-humors into the body politic, indeed. The initial effect seems to have been to unify and intensify Republican sentiment. How long that lasts, how intense the Democratic backlash is and what persuadable voters think about the whole affair are still all substantially unknown. In a week's time we will be better able to assess the fallout from the nuclearized process.
- A man walking his dog on the Capitol grounds this week as protests roiled the air was observed as his golden retriever, a handsome animal, was evacuating its bowels in the shrubbery. Meeting the observer's sidelong glance, the master remarked, "It's not like he's making it worse."
- We hope everyone has a wonderful Columbus Day weekend as little marred by the necessary evils of politics as possible. The note will be on hiatus Monday as we get ready to reload for the final stretch to Election Day. Never fear, though, Chris and the whole Fox News politics team will be on air and online with the latest updates all weekend long.
THE RULEBOOK: QUITE SO
"Nothing need be said to illustrate the importance of the prohibition of titles of nobility. This may truly be denominated the corner-stone of republican government; for so long as they are excluded, there can never be serious danger that the government will be any other than that of the people." – Alexander Hamilton, Federalist No. 84
TIME OUT: PASSING THE SMELL TEST
Longreads: "If given the choice to smell like whale excrement or delicate white flowers, few people would choose the first option. … The words conjure up scent memories of that time your dog released his anal glands on the duvet... Jasmine, on the other hand, sounds like a love song, a Disneyfied dream. … Too bad: if you choose door number two, you'll walk away reeking of sharp vegetal tones tempered by a slightly earthy, foul scent. Jasmine absolute is an oily, semi-viscid, dark amber fluid that is denser and more concentrated than jasmine essential oil. … If you choose door number one, you'll be blessed with the kiss of ambergris, a highly desirable natural substance that smells sweet yet rather marine, like vanilla and unrefined sugar mixed with seawater. … It smells like cashmere feels. Smelling ambergris is an innate pleasure, one that even an infant would recognize as enjoyable, like the first sip of sweet milk."
Flag on the play? - Email us at HALFTIMEREPORT@FOXNEWS.COM with your tips, comments or questions.
SCOREBOARD
Trump job performance
Average approval: 41.2 percent
Average disapproval: 53.6 percent
Net Score: -12.4 points
Change from one week ago: down 2.4 points
[Average includes: IBD: 40% approve - 54% disapprove; NPR/PBS/Marist: 43% approve - 53% disapprove; Quinnipiac University: 41% approve - 53% disapprove; Gallup: 42% approve - 53% disapprove; Pew Research Center: 40% approve - 55% disapprove.]
Control of House
Republican average: 42.2 percent
Democratic average: 49 percent
Advantage: Democrats plus 6.8 points
Change from one week ago: Democratic advantage down 1.4 points
[Average includes: IBD: 45% Dems - 43% GOP; NPR/PBS/Marist: 48% Dems - 42% GOP; Quinnipiac University: 49% Dems - 42% GOP; Pew Research Center: 52% Dems - 42% GOP; Gallup: 51% Dems - 42% GOP.]
POLL: ENTHUSIASM GAP VANISHED
NPR: "Just over a month away from critical elections across the country, the wide Democratic enthusiasm advantage that has defined the 2018 campaign up to this point has disappeared, according to a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll. In July, there was a 10-point gap between the number of Democrats and Republicans saying the November elections were 'very important.' Now, that is down to 2 points, a statistical tie. Democrats' advantage on which party's candidate they are more likely to support has also been cut in half since last month. Democrats still retain a 6-point edge on that question, but it was 12 points after a Marist poll conducted in mid-September."
DCCC: 60 House Dems raised over $1 million - Politico: "Sixty House Democratic candidates broke the $1 million mark in fundraising from July through September, a whopping total fueling the party's campaign to retake the House in November. Thirty of those candidates exceeded $2 million raised last quarter, while eight of them brought in more than $3 million over that period. Three of those $3 million candidates have already announced their third-quarter fundraising: Amy McGrath, a former fighter pilot who's challenging Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.); Josh Harder, a venture capitalist challenging Rep. Jeff Denham (R-Calif.); and Andrew Janz, an attorney running against Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.). Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Ben Ray Lujan previewed the fundraising numbers at a Bloomberg breakfast event with reporters on Thursday, calling the Democrats' numbers 'unprecedented.'"
Rosen sees opportunity with Kavanaugh - NYT: "A first-term congresswoman, Ms. [Jacky Rosen] is in an extraordinary, and tricky, situation: She is running against Senator Dean Heller, the Republicans' most endangered incumbent, in a year when his party can only afford to lose one seat. And she initially had a powerful weapon: The G.O.P.-led confirmation hearings for Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh, which enraged many women and Democrats, and Mr. Heller's gaffe that the sexual assault allegations against the nominee would just be a 'hiccup' in his rise to the Supreme Court. … It's a political moment that requires deft skills on the campaign trail — but Ms. Rosen is still a newcomer to politics, neither cagey nor glossy nor particularly electrifying. In a campaign season filled with rising Democratic stars like Beto O'Rourke in Texas and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in New York, she is not a phenomenon."
DeSantis tries to maintain momentum - NYT: "On Thursday, Mr. [Ron DeSantis] appeared at an Italian center in Tampa, where two singers performed oldies songs [with] more than 100 people… Addressing the crowd for more than 20 minutes, Mr. DeSantis attacked his opponent as corrupt. … Mr. DeSantis and other Republicans believe that what matters most is his willingness to drive a consistent message against Mr. [Andrew Gillum] on ideological grounds, portraying him as far removed from the mainstream of Florida politics. … Still, as the race has tightened, Mr. Gillum's campaign has begun to push back more forcefully on Mr. DeSantis's jabs; this week, Latino Democrats jumped on the phone with reporters to object to Mr. Gillum's portrayal as a 'socialist.' This weekend, Mr. Gillum will campaign with two prominent Jewish politicians, Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz of Florida and former Mayor Michael Bloomberg of New York, at a South Florida retirement community."
Beto: Thanks, but no thanks, Obama - Texas Tribune: "Former President Barack Obama has endorsed 11 Texas Democrats leading up to next month's midterm elections. But none go by the popular four-letter moniker 'Beto'. On Thursday, the three-term Democratic congressman looking to unseat incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, had a simple response to being left off the list: We're doing fine on our own. 'I don't think we're interested [in an endorsement],' Beto O'Rourke said after a town hall at a local high school. 'I am so grateful to him for his service, he's going to go down as one of the greatest presidents. And yet, this [election] is on Texas.' Obama's endorsements include five candidates for the Texas House and six vying for the U.S Congress, including O'Rourke's likely Democratic successor, former El Paso County Judge Veronica Escobar."
Republicans step up cash dump to shore up Blackburn - WaPo: "Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R) is locked in a tight race against [Phil Bredesen], a popular former governor running on a moderate platform and a deep well of goodwill from his eight years in office. Recent polls show Republican voters in Tennessee and nationally are becoming more galvanized amid a bruising confirmation battle over Trump's Supreme Court pick, but GOP strategists have been frustrated that Blackburn has not established a comfortable lead in the race to replace retiring Sen. Bob Corker (R). GOP groups are deploying their full arsenal. Americans for Prosperity, the political arm of the conservative Koch network, on Wednesday announced a $2 million television ad campaign attacking Bredesen, on top of the $2.5 million it already spent on the race. The Senate Leadership Fund, the main Senate GOP super PAC, which spent $2.5 million on ads in the state so far, said it plans to spend roughly $3 million through the fall. And Blackburn's backers are banking that although some voters are souring on the president, vocal support from Trump will boost turnout among the GOP base."
PLAY-BY-PLAY
Unemployment hits lowest level since 1969 - WSJ
AUDIBLE: **EYE ROLL**
"I'm glad he picked him. I swear to God, there was a time I thought he would pick Judge Judy." – Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., discussing the president choosing Judge Brett Kavanaugh to be nominated to the Supreme Court with the WaPo.
ANY GIVEN SUNDAY
This weekend Mr. Sunday will sit down with RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel and Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. Watch "Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace." Panelists include Marie Harf, Juan Williams, Josh Holmes and Chris Stirewalt. Check local listings for broadcast times in your area.
#mediabuzz - Host Howard Kurtz has the latest take on the week's media coverage. Watch #mediabuzz Sundays at 11 a.m. ET.
FROM THE BLEACHERS
"Chris, two simple questions that you can probably answer in one sentence: Do the Senate rules for the Kavanaugh confirmation require a simple majority of the seats in the Senate (51), or a simple majority of those senators who choose to vote yes or no? A hypothetical example – if 50 Republican senators vote yes, 49 Democratic senators vote no, and one Republican senator votes 'present,' is the Vice President's vote required? Also, is your answer the same for any other 'simple majority' voting situation?" – Dave Wittnebert, Seneca, S.C.
[Ed. note: Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., is very glad of the fact that confirmation depends not on having 51 of 100 seats but rather a majority of the members present. Daines' daughter is getting married Saturday and now he will be free to walk her down the aisle confident that Kavanaugh will have a majority of 50 out of 99 members present.]
Share your color commentary: Email us at HALFTIMEREPORT@FOXNEWS.COM and please make sure to include your name and hometown.
NEVER DRUNK TWEET
Fox News: "They're colliding into windows. They're ramming into cars. They're 'acting confused.' Apparently, birds in Gilbert, Minnesota, are flying under the influence. The Gilbert Minnesota Police Department announced this week officials have received several reports of 'drunk' birds in the community, which have been intoxicated by 'certain berries' that have fermented sooner than usual this season, the police department wrote in a public notice on Tuesday. An early frost has 'expedited the fermenting process,' officials said. 'Many birds have not migrated south, so it appears to be more prevalent than in past years. It appears that some birds are getting a little more 'tipsy.'' Younger birds, specifically, have a harder time handling their alcohol. According to the Gilbert Minnesota Police Department, the younger the bird, the less efficiently their liver can handle the 'toxins' from the fermented berries, officials said."
AND NOW, A WORD FROM CHARLES…
"Hillaryism embodies the essence of modern liberalism. Having reached the limits of a welfare state grown increasingly sclerotic, bureaucratic and dysfunctional, the mission of modern liberalism is to patch the fraying safety net with yet more programs and entitlements. It reflexively rejects structural reform." – Charles Krauthammer (1950-2018) writing in the Washington Post on June 23, 2016.
Chris Stirewalt is the politics editor for Fox News. Brianna McClelland contributed to this report. Want FOX News Halftime Report in your inbox every day? Sign up here.
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